2007 UCAS APPLICATIONS
THE BROAD PICTURE

UCAS application figures for 07 make very interesting reading. Everybody expected a rise after last years 3.4% drop (which was mainly a reaction to the large increase in 05 due to the introduction of top up fees) however the rise has far outstripped expectations. As with all figures however they need analysis in order to make best use of them.

Overall there is a 6.4% increase in UCAS applications but for English institutions it was 7.2%, Northern Ireland and Wales were static whilst Scotland only increased by 1.9%. Applications from students aged 21-24 increased by 11.4%, students aged under 21 increased by 5.7% and overseas students by 6.6%. This indicates that the rise in costs in English universities in comparison to Wales & Scotland have had no effect in putting students off applying (or perversely seem to have encouraged it) and for all practical purposes ends the debate about ‘Top up fees’. The rise in older students is also very interesting, as it suggests they are making a rational decision on the return of a higher education qualification after exposure to the job market.

A breakdown of winners (and occasional losers) is very revealing. I have only highlighted courses that had a 9% or more increase, an increase of 2% or less or an actual decrease (see separate spreadsheet). Given an overall increase of over 6%, courses with less than a 2% rise are doing poorly in terms of attraction. In analysing figures you always have to take into account reclassification of subjects by UCAS. In addition big increases have occurred in combination areas, thus whilst the number of students applying to single honours business studies has increased only slightly, the number applying to business combinations or allied areas such as economics, finance, management studies etc has increased hugely. Thus the popularity of business related degrees is still growing at a high rate but more are choosing to access it in a different (and in many ways more numerate) way.

The biggest winner is travel & tourism with a 30.3% rise however this still only accounts for 12,371 applications (psychology had 77,000). Another big winner was business/admin combinations (25%) but not single subject business studies (only 1.4%). Veterinary science had a massive 22% increase but medicine decreased by 3.8%. Creative arts combinations increased by 17.1%, cinematics & photography by 11.6% and dance by 10.8%. Languages in combination with social sciences/law or business increased by 10% but combinations of European languages only by 1.1%.

The biggest winner as a sector was science/engineering with chemical engineering showing a 17% increase, science/engineering combined with arts/humanities an increase of 15.2%, combinations of maths/computer science an increase of 15.8%, civil engineering 13%, physics 12%, zoology 11.6%, chemistry 11.3%, maths 10% and pharmacology/toxicology & pharmacy an increase of 9.4%. However computer science as a single subject only increased by .6% and electronic/electrical engineering by .2%. Information systems dropped by a huge 9.7%.

IMPLICATIONS
I will analyse individual university data in my next newsletter but to take a more global view of applications to English universities.

• Students applying to most science & engineering courses will find that there will be less flexibility on grades than in previous years and there are likely to be far fewer places in clearing, especially at the pre 92 universities.
• Students applying for business combinations, management studies, finance or economics will find that grade offers will be high, with little flexibility and indeed many students who in the past might have got in, will face rejections this year. However students applying for single honours business courses should be in a quite good position.
• Students applying for veterinary science will find it very hard to get places and their usual substitute Zoology will also be harder to get onto.
• Medicine students will find it easier than previous years but not those applying for subjects allied to medicine. Forensic science has lost its popularity (not before time most teachers and science employers would probably say) and students applying to this area should find it much easier to get places than in previous years. The huge drop in anatomy physiology & pathology will make entry to this area very easy for students but it has major long term implications in terms of research and post doc studies and will exacerbate the trend towards overseas post graduate students dominating many medical science areas.
• Students applying for single honours computer science or IT courses will find it relatively easy to get offers but less so if they have applied for computing/IT combined with another subject.
• Visual creative subjects have increased in popularity and it will be much harder to get offers than in previous years.

It also seems to signal an end to the closer and downsizing of science departments and a lot of Vice Chancellors will be very red faced and under political pressure, after department closures in this area. Language departments also have some cause for optimism, although it seems that the trend is to study languages in combination with other areas.

CONCLUSION
To paraphrase a famous Chinese saying, we are living in interesting times, with students seemingly wanting a more direct return from their degree in terms of earning potential and employability, a good example of this is the 16.1% increase in the very vocational degree ‘Building’. Surveys show that engineering & science degrees give far greater returns over a working lifetime than arts subjects and this message has got through in a major way. The university showing the largest increase in applications is Surrey (over 40%) and they specialise in science/technology and vocational degrees with a strong work placement element.

Whilst science departments will be very happy I guess some arts and humanities tutors will be looking a little anxiously to the future. Computing seems to have lost its way as a single honours subject both in IT systems and computer science. The incredible rise of psychology has also been pegged to a mere 3.9% increase (still 77,000 applications).

Gordon Collins